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Monday, April 5, 2021

Thought for the Day (Just in case)


Thought for the Day (Just in case)


As more and more people get vaccinated, Covid numbers are not yet falling.  In some states new cases are slightly rising once again.  Scientists are saying this is because the virus is mutating and the mutations are even more transmissible.  The virulence of the new mutations is not yet determined, but the fear is the new mutations may be even more deadly.

I am not an epidemiologist and I do not even play one on TV, but I would think that new mutations would be less virulent, not more.

Why you ask?

Any virus should follow the Darwin evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest.  What makes a virus fit…or what makes a virus best able to evolve into a successful virus?  Is a virus successful if it kills its host?  I don’t think so.  The longer a host survives the longer the virus survives and is able to infect other hosts.

Let's look at a virus like any organism and its evolution.  The evolutionary cycle of a virus would be a fast-moving evolution.  All organisms mutate.  A mutation that makes survival more difficult does not thrive.  A mutation that  gives an organism a survival advantage will thrive and slowly replace the current variety.

A mutated virus that is less transmissible would not replace the current virus; it will fade away.  A virus that kills its host quickly would have less chance to infect other hosts and thus would spread slower and not survive robustly.  

Thus, this cranky non-scientist believes that the Covid virus will mutate.  It will mutate until the vaccine corals us into heard immunity.  The new mutations will thrive, but they should be less virulent, because that would be their competitive advantage for survival. 

Experts will not tell us this.  They always want to err on the side of caution.  So, experts and politicians will still fear new mutations and will want us to fear them as well.

I say do not fear the new mutations.  If you are vaccinated you are safe.  Safe to not wear a mask, safe to not social distance, safe to live your life like you used to.

On the other hand, I am an idiot.  Maybe you should continue to be careful just in case.  I know I will…you know, just in case.

I am not really afraid of the new mutations.  

I am not afraid of sharks either but I don’t swim with dead fish around my waist either.  You know…just in case.  



  1. Cases may be going up, but the daily death rate is falling. Looked to be 800 yesterday; last week was 1000. Regardless, we are safe from variants if vaccinated. I’m ready to get on with life!

  2. You and Darwin made some really good points Joeh. I was all set to rebut but you are right. If Covid wants to survive, it can't kill us. Still it can evolve to make us darn sick just for the fun of it. There have been too many breakthrough cases of fully vaccinated people catching the disease. There is always that 10% chance we are not one of the lucky ones with any immunity. Like you, I will still be careful until we have some really amazing numbers. Stay safe my friend.

  3. Gavin said he is opening up California come June. We'll see...Makes me wonder if the recall efforts have determined this sudden change of mind.

  4. I'm planning on taking some trips by the end of summer and gathering with family and friends by July 4. However I will continue to follow guidelines for now. The mask doesn't bother me. I've saved time and money on makeup! Being 6 feet away from strangers isn't a problem either. Especially at Wal-Mart.

  5. I agree with your epidemiological assessment. Our county is averaging 2 new cases per day. That's "cases." Don't know how many are actually sick, or if they're just being tested for upcoming hospital procedures which require it.

    Here's what I still don't understand. Our county of 67,000 people has now given 112,000 tests! Where are all these testees (heh, heh, your 13-year-old self knows what I said) coming from? I suppose it's the repeat tests they do every week at the two state prisons, and the other government offices. And the nursing homes. I trust that they are only reporting NEW positive cases, and not people who have to keep taking the test until they show negative.

  6. My hope is you are right, and i am still going to stay safe as i work. Even if it's just a cold, i cannot afford to catch anything and bring it to clients who are in their 80's-90's.

  7. Having received both vaccinations (the second a month ago) I'm feeling pretty safe. But I still wear a mask when I am around people other than my wife though I did take it off to get my hair cut today. But, like you say, "just in case". It's better to be safe than sorry.

  8. even way down under the equator here, I am still being careful and will continue being careful until doomsday if I have to.

  9. i am agree that media and social media present the issue by enlarging it yet i think Care is best way to keep safe .

    here more than half part of our country is under lockdown once again but here in Sindh province academic institutes are still opened ,
    I am wondering what about claim that virus boosts during winters only ,our temps are reaching to forty ?