Thought for the Day (Just in case)
As more and
more people get vaccinated, Covid numbers are not yet falling. In some states new cases are slightly rising
once again. Scientists are saying this
is because the virus is mutating and the mutations are even more transmissible. The virulence of the new mutations is not yet
determined, but the fear is the new mutations may be even more deadly.
I am not an epidemiologist and I do not even
play one on TV, but I would think that new mutations would be less virulent,
not more.
Why you ask?
Any virus should follow the
Darwin evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest. What makes a virus fit…or what makes a virus
best able to evolve into a successful virus?
Is a virus successful if it kills its host? I don’t think so. The longer a host survives the longer the
virus survives and is able to infect other hosts.
Let's look at a virus like
any organism and its evolution. The evolutionary
cycle of a virus would be a fast-moving evolution. All organisms mutate. A mutation that makes survival more difficult
does not thrive. A mutation that gives
an organism a survival advantage will thrive and slowly replace the current
variety.
A mutated virus that is
less transmissible would not replace the current virus; it will fade away. A virus that kills its host quickly would
have less chance to infect other hosts and thus would spread slower and not
survive robustly.
Thus, this cranky non-scientist
believes that the Covid virus will mutate. It will mutate until the vaccine corals us
into heard immunity. The new mutations
will thrive, but they should be less virulent, because that would be their
competitive advantage for survival.
Experts will not tell us
this. They always want to err on the
side of caution. So, experts and
politicians will still fear new mutations and will want us to fear them as
well.
I say do not fear the new
mutations. If you are vaccinated you are
safe. Safe to not wear a mask, safe to
not social distance, safe to live your life like you used to.
On the other hand, I am an
idiot. Maybe you should continue to be
careful just in case. I know I will…you
know, just in case.
I am not really afraid of
the new mutations.
I am not afraid of sharks
either but I don’t swim with dead fish around my waist either. You know…just in case.
Cases may be going up, but the daily death rate is falling. Looked to be 800 yesterday; last week was 1000. Regardless, we are safe from variants if vaccinated. I’m ready to get on with life!
ReplyDeleteYou and Darwin made some really good points Joeh. I was all set to rebut but you are right. If Covid wants to survive, it can't kill us. Still it can evolve to make us darn sick just for the fun of it. There have been too many breakthrough cases of fully vaccinated people catching the disease. There is always that 10% chance we are not one of the lucky ones with any immunity. Like you, I will still be careful until we have some really amazing numbers. Stay safe my friend.
ReplyDeleteGavin said he is opening up California come June. We'll see...Makes me wonder if the recall efforts have determined this sudden change of mind.
ReplyDeleteI'm confused.
ReplyDeleteGod bless.
I'm planning on taking some trips by the end of summer and gathering with family and friends by July 4. However I will continue to follow guidelines for now. The mask doesn't bother me. I've saved time and money on makeup! Being 6 feet away from strangers isn't a problem either. Especially at Wal-Mart.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your epidemiological assessment. Our county is averaging 2 new cases per day. That's "cases." Don't know how many are actually sick, or if they're just being tested for upcoming hospital procedures which require it.
ReplyDeleteHere's what I still don't understand. Our county of 67,000 people has now given 112,000 tests! Where are all these testees (heh, heh, your 13-year-old self knows what I said) coming from? I suppose it's the repeat tests they do every week at the two state prisons, and the other government offices. And the nursing homes. I trust that they are only reporting NEW positive cases, and not people who have to keep taking the test until they show negative.
My hope is you are right, and i am still going to stay safe as i work. Even if it's just a cold, i cannot afford to catch anything and bring it to clients who are in their 80's-90's.
ReplyDeleteHaving received both vaccinations (the second a month ago) I'm feeling pretty safe. But I still wear a mask when I am around people other than my wife though I did take it off to get my hair cut today. But, like you say, "just in case". It's better to be safe than sorry.
ReplyDeleteeven way down under the equator here, I am still being careful and will continue being careful until doomsday if I have to.
ReplyDeletei am agree that media and social media present the issue by enlarging it yet i think Care is best way to keep safe .
ReplyDeletehere more than half part of our country is under lockdown once again but here in Sindh province academic institutes are still opened ,
I am wondering what about claim that virus boosts during winters only ,our temps are reaching to forty ?