Thought for the Day (Just in case)
As more and
more people get vaccinated, Covid numbers are not yet falling. In some states new cases are slightly rising
once again. Scientists are saying this
is because the virus is mutating and the mutations are even more transmissible. The virulence of the new mutations is not yet
determined, but the fear is the new mutations may be even more deadly.
I am not an epidemiologist and I do not even
play one on TV, but I would think that new mutations would be less virulent,
not more.
Why you ask?
Any virus should follow the
Darwin evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest. What makes a virus fit…or what makes a virus
best able to evolve into a successful virus?
Is a virus successful if it kills its host? I don’t think so. The longer a host survives the longer the
virus survives and is able to infect other hosts.
Let's look at a virus like
any organism and its evolution. The evolutionary
cycle of a virus would be a fast-moving evolution. All organisms mutate. A mutation that makes survival more difficult
does not thrive. A mutation that gives
an organism a survival advantage will thrive and slowly replace the current
variety.
A mutated virus that is
less transmissible would not replace the current virus; it will fade away. A virus that kills its host quickly would
have less chance to infect other hosts and thus would spread slower and not
survive robustly.
Thus, this cranky non-scientist
believes that the Covid virus will mutate. It will mutate until the vaccine corals us
into heard immunity. The new mutations
will thrive, but they should be less virulent, because that would be their
competitive advantage for survival.
Experts will not tell us
this. They always want to err on the
side of caution. So, experts and
politicians will still fear new mutations and will want us to fear them as
well.
I say do not fear the new
mutations. If you are vaccinated you are
safe. Safe to not wear a mask, safe to
not social distance, safe to live your life like you used to.
On the other hand, I am an
idiot. Maybe you should continue to be
careful just in case. I know I will…you
know, just in case.
I am not really afraid of
the new mutations.
I am not afraid of sharks
either but I don’t swim with dead fish around my waist either. You know…just in case.


